ryan3/5/2010
Will our smartphones replace our desktop computers?
Mashable reports on the comment made by John Herlihy (European Director of Google’s online sales) that our desktop computers may become irrelevant within the next few years. What is this idea based on?
Japan's Stats
First, he says that statistics in Japan show that most research done in that country is performed on smartphones instead of desktops. Whether or not that is also a spiking trend in the states, I cannot say. I'd imagine that at the rate at which smartphones are becoming ubiquitous among people of all ages, I'd assume that we're close on Japan's tail.
Storage in the Cloud
Second, information stored in the cloud could potentially replace the need for massive hard drives. This of course, as Mashable suggests, is Google's domain. With a growing number of services that allow users to store and access their documents and media from the web (instead of their computers), this point can't be ignored.
The question, though, is will we be ready to eliminate our need for a workstation? Maybe? Sorta. I believe there will come a time when we'll be able to come into work, plug a hand-held device into a monitor, and use this device as our operating system. As these devices continue to sync our accounts, media, and contacts together, it only makes sense that they will sync to our files in the cloud, too.
Some of the major problems with this theory include native applications and large files that require powerful processors. Can a smartphone's tiny processor ever be as fast as a desktop? Will Adobe make a suite of fully functioning applications in the cloud? Or will they continue to make lightweight versions native to the hand-held device itself? We've seen the limitations of Android's and iPhone's Photoshop app, so will Adobe improve upon this? Will Internet speeds increase to levels that make storing large files online a problem of the past? Truthfully, I'm not sure.
Tell me your thoughts:
Do you think John Herlihy is right? Will smartphones make desktops irrelevant?
What are some other limitations of my plug-and-play device-to-monitor scenario?
I do think the desktop will become irrelevant. But I don’t think the smartphone as we know it will be the replacement. I imagine the convergence of smartphone / tablet PC / notebook / netbook is where it will end up. Something thin, lightweight, portable, powerful…but probably bigger than a phone. Related to this, I wonder about the future of keyboards…full-size keyboard? miniature keyboard? touchscreen? speech recognition?
When I imagine being a business owner, I can’t imagine having employees walk out of the office every night with the equipment, software and data that constitutes my business. It makes more sense to me, regardless of the size of the CPU, that it stay in the office and not be used for personal stuff. You’d be a lot less likely to lose an account because someone left their iWhatever in a taxi or dropped it in a puddle while texting “ZOMG!” to their BFF. This is my personal preference, but I wouldn’t want to spend my day looking down at my lap and working on a 2.5″ x 4.5″ screen either. I also like the idea of separating work from home. Not everyone wants to have their work in their pocket 24-7.
I’m also having a really hard time getting comfortable with “cloud computing”. What happens to your company when it “rains”? Considering how adamant hackers are about busting up people’s PCs, the potential for loss is way too uncomfortable for me. Imagine the CEO of Google in front of Congress trying to explain how it wasn’t their fault that every corporation in the country is temporarily out of business because the unimaginable happened in their “clouds”. I like to put my eyes on the drive that stores my data and at least know what building I’d go to if I wanted to see my back-up.
Scott, I agree and disagree with all of your points. Specifically, cloud computing concerns. Yes, if the internet goes down, we don’t have access to our files. But, conversely, what if your external hard drive fizzles? Or what if your laptop is stolen? I think some type of hybrid is the answer. The great part about the cloud is you can use it as backup and/or hard drive that’s accessible everywhere. No more carrying heavy fragile devices that could fall and break. I think the same goes for professional security as well. What’s preventing someone from dropping sensitive files on to their devices now?
